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I am also very engaged in the Arena Subreddit community, also happy to chat MTG

We beat Gene comprehensively through sheer luck, as he continually tries to Leer me with Rhydon to stall out Paras, and fails the coin flip 5 times straight

(In fact, weve so far already implicitly assumed some rudimentary player strategy: namely that if we can play a land, we do so.) If we're to account for all these different factors, its going to be practically impossible to get an analytical answer, i.e., an answer in the form of a neat little formula like the distribution function of the binomial or hypergeometric distribution

Summary Unique forest land cards in MTG can be surprisingly valuable, with prices ranging from $26 to $457